Other Voices

By JOHN FURRY

Know a Little Less,

Understand a Little More

This was headline of newspaper article I found in an old letter. The headline appeared in 1966 on the Herald’s iconic column, “Uncle Pete from Potter Creek.” The quote, reportedly from Zeke Grub’s preacher in a Sunday service, seems as relevant today as it did 54 years ago. In my humble opinion (I am not a medical expert), our country is in a major world war with COVID-19, and in the next three years on our nation’s current path, we could see over a million needless COVID-19 related deaths and devasting economic hardship. Certainly, before the war is over, the cost could be $3 trillion or more.

The past few months have been unlike any in my lifetime. COVID-19 enlists half of us to unknowingly sicken or kill other half. Even one person can start a community outbreak. The enemy is us. We need to be smart, not afraid. An estimated 40 percent of those infected show no symptoms yet infect others with the virus. Many infected show no symptoms for more than eight days and unknowingly infect others during this time.

We see people relying on medical advice from elected politicians rather physicians and medical experts. Others rely on beliefs and opinions rather than science. In poker parlance, as the virus spreads throughout the country, the deck is stacked against us and as you would expect, we are losing. To stack the deck in our favor, as we all heard: wear masks, social distance, wash hands, avoid large gatherings and unnecessary travel.

Quoting one letter to the editor: “Mask It or Casket” Enough venting. My hope and prayer is that everyone in the country will follow CDC guidelines to get the virus under control.

A system that worked

Three things looking forward. President Trump said we are at war. War is sudden and there are immediate shortages of products required to fight it. I believe our country, as in WW II, has the wherewith-all to quickly respond, increase the production capacity, and produce personal protective equipment, testing equipment, tests and medicines to defeat the virus.

Currently, however, 50 states are independently fighting 50 wars, competing for the products in short supply, and bidding up prices. In WW II, the war production board directed production and distribution of the restricted products needed to fight the war. One such product, surprisingly, was soybean meal, an essential source of protein for dairy and beef cattle, poultry, hogs, and other farm animals.

With big government controlling the supply, how were Bedford County farmers able to get soybean meal? Farmers got their soybean meal from feed manufactures who elected one person-in-charge (PIC). The county manufacturers would telephone the PIC with their monthly soybean requirements. The PIC would telephone the state with the tons of soybean meal the county needed and railroad siding where it was to be shipped. The state called the war production board with amount needed by the counties.

Thus, the board knew how much was needed and where to ship it. It was a simple, emergency, “bottom-up” distribution system, done without computers, and it worked.

Suppose that we had pandemic production board for medical personal protective equipment (PPE) and tests and testing equipment. Suppose a local hospital was elected as person-in-charge for PPE in the county. The PIC would tabulate county’s PPE requirements, inform the state, who would inform the production board. The board, knowing our nations medical PPE needs, could direct companies of what and how much to produce and where to ship it.

If there was as shortage, PPE could effectively be allocated without states bidding up prices. The emergency board would have the information to effectively direct companies to increase production capacity for PPE products in critically short supply.

Certainly, all medical personnel, caregivers, and first responders need to have adequate PPE. It seems to me that school systems would need their own supply system to protect teachers, staff and students. Even the need for our country to get back to work, businesses and the rest of us will probably rely on our market system for protective equipment since the alternative is national rationing and price controls for as long as shortages continue.

Immunizations

Second, anyone who has served in the military knows in one hour, a medic with an “air gun” could administer a vaccine to 200 persons walking in a line past the medic’s station. Even with a wheelchair parade in a nursing home, the rate could be 50 an hour. In about seven months, the trials will be completed for first vaccine. Hopefully this vaccine or another one will be proven safe and effective.

As a vaccine becomes available, time is of essence to inoculate our most vulnerable groups: nursing homes, medical personnel, meat packing plants and prisons. Perhaps, local National Guard units could be part of a national plan to coordinate and implement the effort at the community level.

Finally, COVID-19 is not the first nor the last virus our nation will face. Needless death and economic destruction can be prevented with a pandemic plan and response team. Consider Taiwan’s response. Taiwan is democracy on an island 80 miles from China with daily air flights to/from Wuhan, China. The island is 13,000 square miles in size, 1,000 larger than the state of Maryland, and has a population of 24 million, 5 million more than New York state.

In January, they learned of a strange pneumonia in Wuhan and implemented their response plan. As of Aug. 05, 2020, Taiwan had 476 COVID-19 cases and seven deaths and has a forecasted one-percent growth in their economy.

Applying Taiwan’s results to our population of 330 million, means if we had a plan as effective, we would have 6,545 cases and 97 deaths.

Be smart and stay safe.

Editor’s Note: John Furry grew up near New Enterprise and currently lives in State College.

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