Take Heart, Conservatives

There is a lot of consternation on the political Right about the apparent failure of President Donald J. Trump to win a second term.

However, as a conservative, I don’t think things are gloomy for my side at all.

Yes, the presidency likely has switched to the Democratic Party. But if you’re in favor of conservative principles, there’s reason to take heart.

Let me run down why I think conservatives should be pleased with the outcome of the Nov. 3 election.

The GOP retained the U.S. Senate

Before the Nov. 3 election, the U.S Senate was controlled by the Republicans. Since January 2019, the Republicans controlled 53 Senate seats. Democrats controlled 45 and there were two independents who worked (and usually voted) with the Democrats. That gave the Democrats effectively 47 seats.

As I write this on Wednesday, Nov. 11, the Republican Party will have at least 50 seats in the U.S. Senate. If the GOP has 50 senators, the Democrats cannot have a majority in the U.S. Senate.

The worst-case scenario for conservatives would be that the senate is split 50/50. In such a case, the vice president breaks tie votes but not in all cases. Note that this is the worst-case scenario.

Given the states yet to report a final vote, the Republicans are likely to pick up at least two more Senate seats, meaning that the GOP will have a 52-48 advantage. If the GOP picks up all three of the remaining seats, then it would have the same 53-seat majority that it had before the Nov. 3 election.

The GOP having the majority means that the Democrats will not have control of the Senate and Mitch McConnell likely will remain the Senate majority leader.

Although the U.S. Senate has conceded many powers to the president’s office over the last few decades (and might now be regretting that), it is clear that predictions that the Democrats would gain control of the senate turned out to not be true.

This result is interesting because it looks like voters in some states chose Biden for president but then voted for their Republican senator. There’s not enough information to determine if this is true, or why it happened, but it could indicate that some voters wanted to place a conservative check on the Democratic president.

In any case, conservatives should be pleased that the U.S. Senate did not flip to the control of Democrats.

The GOP made gains in the U.S. House

Unlike the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House was in the control of the Democrats before the Nov. 3 election. This is why Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, is the speaker of the House.

Before the Nov. 3 election, the Democrats controlled 232 U.S. House seats and the Republicans controlled 197. One seat is occupied by a Libertarian Party candidate and there were five vacancies.

At 232-197, the Democrats held a decisive advantage in the U.S. House. Before the election, there was some talk that the Democrats might be able to increase the number of house seats that they held.

Roll Call reported: With more than 50 races still uncalled as of early Wednesday afternoon, House Democrats hoping to grow their majority had failed to defeat a single Republican incumbent, while they lost a handful of seats in Trump-friendly districts and two in a part of Florida.

While the final results are not in as a I write this, it looks like the Republicans could pick up seven to 12 seats in the U.S. House.

While the GOP did not manage to gain control of the House, it is good for conservatives that Republicans picked up seats instead of losing them. This indicates that voters prefer conservative candidates in the federal office that is closest to the voters.

There’s another important implication of this development, which I will discuss immediately below.

Biden’s win revealed the fault lines in the Left

There has always been concern on the Right that a President Biden would fall under the control of the most extreme wing of the Democratic Party.

However, the failure to win the senate and the loss of Democratic seats in the house apparently indicates that American voters are not in favor of the most extreme ideas of the Democrats.

I don’t want to get out in front of my skis here, because a lot about voter motivation is still unknown, but there are some clues about what went on.

The Washington Post obtained audio recordings of a conference call by Democrats following the election. Centrist Democratic candidates were apparently very upset by the Democratic Party’s acceptance of far-Left positions. The Associated Press reported that Democratic Virginia Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat, said:

We have to commit to not saying the words ‘defund the police’ ever again. We want to talk about funding social services, and ensuring good engagement in community policing, let's talk about what we are for. And we need to not ever use the words 'socialist' or 'socialism' ever again. Because while people think it doesn't matter, it does matter. And we lost good members because of it.

This indicates a couple of important things which should be heartening to conservatives:

1. Voters generally rejected far-Left Democratic ideas and candidates.

2. The Democrats have been warned by voters that attempts to have a Biden Administration push radical ideas will likely not find support among most voters.

3. If the Democrats are smart, they will focus on achieving goals that benefit Americans widely and not the pet projects of the most radical Democrats.

4. Whatever polling and data the Democrats were using that predicted their results is apparently badly flawed.

The GOP picked up some state legislatures

Next year, states will redraw electoral maps for congressional and state legislative districts. It’s something the U.S. Constitution mandates every decade based on new census data. In many states, it’s up to elected officials in the state legislature to draw the district lines.

According to the Washington Post’s Amber Phillips:

Republicans controlled the mapmaking process in most states after a stellar 2010 election and were able to draw state and congressional districts that made it harder for Democrats to regain power at all levels. After a stronger-than-expected performance this November, Republicans will control map-drawing in a majority of chambers next year, too, although to a slightly lesser degree.

The district-drawing process will be controlled in 19 states by Republican legislatures, following the results of the Nov. 3 election.

As Russell Berman of the Atlantic put it:

One ... Democratic setback came in Pennsylvania, where the party had hoped to pick up at least one chamber of the legislature this year. It fell short again, and so when lawmakers go to draw the district maps for the next decade, and write the laws that will, for example, govern how votes are counted in the next election, Republicans will have the upper hand – just as they did this year.

The Supreme Court is a backstop

Whatever the Democrats might try, if they overstep, there is now a firm conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court. Court cases are never guaranteed to go a certain way, but it seems likely that the court will be there to prevent any of the Left’s crazier ideas from being imposed on the nation. (Note that implementing crazy ideas is going to be hard anyway because of GOP control of the U.S. Senate.)

Conclusion –

Be heartened

All of the above will likely combine to make sure that the Biden Administration will be forced to carry out a more centrist agenda. It will not be able to put into place any of the more extreme ideas of the Left.

So, despite the apparent loss of the presidency, there are good reasons for conservatives to be heartened by the results of the Nov. 3 election.