2020 Census: Region's Population Aging, Declining

On July 1, the U.S. Census Bureau released its 2020 Detailed Nation, State, and County Population Estimates for population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.

By Sept. 30, the Director of the Census Bureau will furnish Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf and state legislative leaders with additional 2020 Census population counts for state legislative districts, municipalities, census tract, and other geographies. In addition to supporting the state's redistricting process, this data will also influence how much state and federal funding communities receive over the course of the decade.

It's still too early to speculate on numbers and consequences for Morrisons Cove's townships and boroughs, though some trends at the county level do give insight as to what might be happening closer to home: specifically, the population is declining and aging.

There have already been consequences at the state level.

Since 2010, Pennsylvania's resident population increased 2.4 percent to 13,002,700 persons, making the Commonwealth the fifth largest state in the nation.

However, it is the apportionment population, which includes those stationed overseas and their families, that is used to determine which states gain or lose representation in Congress.

Although Pennsylvania saw a 2.2 percent increase to 13,011,844 in its apportionment population since 2010, the state nevertheless lost one seat in Congress, reducing its total number of Representatives to 17. It is the 10th straight Census in which the state's congressional representation has declined.

Senior Magnet

According to the Pennsylvania State Data Center's June Research Brief, Pennsylvania's older population cohorts continued to grow from 2010 to 2020. The population aged 65 to 69 and 70 to 74 were the fastest growing cohorts (40.1 percent and 46.9 percent, respectively).

Blair and Bedford Counties also saw growth in these categories.

Outside of its older population, Pennsylvania also experienced notable growth in its young adult population cohorts aged 25 to 29 and aged 30 to 34 (7.9 percent and 18.3 percent, respectively).

Overall, the Data Center reported that the state's population under 25 years of age decreased by more than 310,000 persons, or 7.7 percent, while the population 25 to 64 years of age decreased by slightly more than 97,000, or 1.5 percent.

The population over 65 years of age added 488,000 persons, an increase of 24.9 percent.

In 2020, just under 20 percent of Pennsylvania's population was 65 years of age or older.

Moreover, for every 10 individuals under 25 years of age lost in Pennsylvania since 2010, the state gained 16 persons aged 65 or older.

State Rep. Jesse Topper, whose 78th District includes portions of the Cove that lie in Bedford County, said older populations have always been larger here, but several other factors are contributing to recent growth.

"We're seeing now that there are even more seniors who want to retire to places like Bedford County," he explained. "These retirees prefer rural areas, and the tax climate here is much better for them than in the states they are leaving."

County Differences

County-level data published on the Pennsylvania State Data Center's website indicates that the overall population in Bedford County decreased by 1,888, or 3.8 percent, from 2010 to 2020.

By comparison, Blair County's population decreased by 5,288, or 4.2 percent, during the same time period.

And whereas Blair County's year-by-year numbers show a more or less steady population decline from domestic migration over the decade despite a steep increase during 2016, Bedford County's domestic migration numbers reflect a much more dynamic situation.

Bedford County experienced sharp population decline from domestic migration in 2012, followed by sharp population growth in 2013. That in turn was followed by sharp decline again in 2014 and another year of sharp growth in 2015.

Starting in 2016, moderate domestic migration decline continued through 2018 before the county entered an extended growth trend that is still continuing.

In fact, Bedford County entirely recouped its domestic migration population losses by the fall of 2019 and started 2020 with a small net migration gain of 41 individuals compared with the 2010 numbers.

Deaths outpaced births in every single year during the decade in both Bedford and Blair Counties. There were 950 more deaths than births in Bedford County from 2010 through 2019, and 3,476 more deaths than births in Blair County.

While Bedford County's birthrate remained fairly steady each year, Blair County's birthrate saw steady decline.

Growth Potential

State Rep. Jim Gregory, whose 80th District includes portions of Morrisons Cove that lie within Blair County, said declining population coupled with an increase in seniors doesn't necessarily call for any major adjustments in the way he represents his district or the services that its residents receive.

"I've always believed that if you take care of the small things, the big things will be taken care of in the process," Gregory said. "We've always been doing all we can to help our seniors and we'll continue doing that, so rising numbers should not have any detrimental impact."

Employment opportunities could represent one reason for Bedford County's domestic migration fluctuations.

Bette Slayton, president of the Bedford County Development Association, said the county has seen growth in a variety of industries coming out of the pandemic.

"The Green Leaf Medical cannabis growing facility in Saxton hired 125 new employees after completing its Phase 1 development last year, and they're investing another $35 million in Phase 2 expansion, which could bring 500 new jobs to the area," Slayton said.

Other companies in Bedford County are also expanding, adding to the need for local workers that could attract new residents to the area.

No Surprises

It's difficult to say with any certainty just where incoming retirees and new job seekers are choosing to live, but the U.S. Census Bureau's map showing Pennsylvania's Percent Change in Population from 2010 to 2020 indicates that virtually every township in Bedford and Blair Counties experienced population decrease, while population growth exceeded 5 percent in Snake Spring Township and the boroughs of Alum Bank, Hopewell, and Newry.

In terms of minority residents, Bedford County's Black population increased from 0.5 to 0.6 percent between 2010 and 2020, its Asian population increased from 0.1 to 0.4 percent, and its Hispanic population increased from 0.9 to 1.3 percent.

In Blair County, the Black population increased from 1.6 to 2 percent, the Asian population increased from 0.6 to 0.7 percent, and the Hispanic population increased from 1 to 1.3 percent.

More detailed information drilling down to municipalities and census tracts should be released by fall, giving a better picture of the population changes in Morrisons Cove, but the initial numbers confirm what a lot of residents have already known.

"The decline in numbers was not a surprise, we knew it was coming," Topper said. "Our senior services are good, and we're going to have to continue to be cognizant of that, because I think this trend is going to continue and we need to be ready for it."